This Week’s Market Commentary

March 25, 2013

This week brings us the release of six pieces of relevant economic data along with two Treasury auctions that have the potential to affect mortgage rates. This is also a holiday-shortened week with the bond market scheduled to close early Thursday and remain closed Friday in observance of the Good Friday holiday. The stock markets will be closed Friday only.

Monday’s only event is a speaking engagement by Fed Chairman Bernanke early afternoon. He will be speaking at the London School of Economics at 1:15 PM ET Monday. The topic of his speech is what was learned from the past financial crisis. I am not expecting this to be a market moving appearance, but anytime he does speak, the markets listen. Therefore, we will be watching for any reaction to his words.

There are three pieces of data set for release Tuesday. The first will come from the Commerce Department at 8:30 AM ET, who will post February’s Durable Goods Orders. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking new orders for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years such as electronics, appliances and airplanes. This data is known to be volatile from month to month but is still considered to be of fairly high importance to the markets. Analysts are expecting it to show an increase in new orders of approximately 3.8%. A much larger increase would be considered negative for bonds as it would indicate economic strength and could lead to higher mortgage rates Tuesday morning.

March’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be posted at 10:00 AM ET Tuesday morning. This index gives us an indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Bond traders watch this data closely because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of our economy. If this report shows that confidence in their own financial situations is falling, it would indicate that consumers are less apt to make a large purchase in the near future. If it reveals that confidence looks to be growing, we may see bond traders sell as economic growth may rise, pushing mortgage rates higher Tuesday morning. It is expected to show a decline from February’s 69.0 reading to 66.9 for March. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for bonds and mortgage rates.

The Commerce Department will also give us February’s New Home Sales figures late Tuesday morning. They are expected to announce a small decline in sales of newly constructed homes. This report tracks a much smaller percentage of home sales than last week’s Existing Home Sales report covered, so it should have a much weaker influence on the markets and mortgage pricing. A large increase in sales would be negative for the bond market and mortgage pricing because it would point towards economic strength.

The next relevant data is Thursday’s final revision to the 4th Quarter GDP. This is the second and final revision to January’s preliminary reading of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product, or the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. It is expected to show that the economy grew at an annual pace of 0.3% last quarter, up slightly from the previous estimate of 0.1% that was released last month. Analysts are now more concerned with next month’s preliminary reading of the 1st quarter than data from three to six months ago, so I don’t expect this report to affect mortgage rates much.
Friday has two reports that could affect mortgage rates, but since the financial and mortgage markets will be closed we will have to wait for next Monday to see them react to these reports. The first is February’s Personal Income & Outlays report early Friday morning. This data helps us measure consumers’ ability to spend and current spending habits, which is important to the mortgage market because of the influence that consumer spending- related information has on the financial markets. If a consumer’s income is rising, they are more likely to make additional purchases in the near future. This raises inflation concerns, adds fuel for economic growth and has a negative effect on the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.8% increase in income and a 0.6% rise in spending. Smaller than expected increases would be ideal for bond traders and mortgage shoppers.

The final report of the week comes from the University of Michigan just before 10:00 AM ET Friday. Their revision to their March Consumer Sentiment Index will give us another indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers’ willingness to spend. As with Tuesday’s CCI report, rising confidence is considered bad news for the bond market and mortgage pricing. Friday’s report is expected to show a small increase from the preliminary reading of 71.8. Favorable results for bonds and mortgage rates would be a decline in confidence.

In addition to this week’s economic reports, there are two relatively important Treasury auctions that may also influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates. There will be an auction of 5-year Notes Wednesday and 7-year Notes on Thursday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. However, strong sales usually make bonds more attractive to investors and bring more funds into the bond market. The buying of bonds that follows often translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET auction day, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon hours.
Overall, I believe Tuesday will be the most active day for mortgage rates with three reports scheduled, including the week’s most important (Durable Goods). I would not be surprised to see pressure in bonds Monday due to progress in Cyprus this weekend, so be prepared to see movement in rates Monday also. There doesn’t appear to be too much to be concerned with, however, any day could bring something unexpected that leads to a big move in the markets and mortgage pricing. Therefore, it would be wise to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and be ready to contact your mortgage professional.

This Week’s Market Commentary

March 18, 2013

This week brings us the release of four monthly reports for the bond market to digest, but none of them are considered to be highly important. In addition to the economic reports, we also have a Fed-filled day in the middle part of the week. With none of the reports likely to move the markets, we could see a couple fairly calm days in mortgage rates.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for release Monday, so look for the stock markets and overseas news to be the biggest influences on bond trading and mortgage rates. News about a potential bailout for Cyprus and some unprecedented requirements that are being considered could help push stocks lower Monday. As word spread about a potential tax on deposit accounts there, many people rushed ATM’s to get cash out over the weekend. Even though Cyprus’s President addressed the nation to calm fears, the news is expected to drag down international stock markets when they open for trading. That should bode well for the bond market as investors may look towards bonds as safety from any volatility. And what is good for the bond market is generally good news for mortgage shoppers.

Two of the week’s four reports that are scheduled give us insights into the housing sector. They begin early Tuesday morning when February’s Housing Starts will be posted. This report tracks construction starts of new housing. It doesn’t usually cause much movement in mortgage rates and is considered one of the less important reports we see each month. It is expected to show an increase in housing starts, indicating growth in the housing sector. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be a sizable decline in new starts, but unless we see a large variance from forecasts the data likely will not lead to a noticeable move in mortgage pricing.

Wednesday is the day with several Fed events scheduled. They start with the 2:00 PM ET adjournment of the FOMC meeting that began Tuesday. It is widely expected that Mr. Bernanke and company will not change key short-term interest rates at this meeting, but there is rising concern in the market that the Fed may cut back their current bond-buying program (QE3) to help ease future issues. Any word on this topic either way could heavily influence the markets and mortgage rates.
Also worth noting is that the FOMC meeting is ending a little earlier than the traditional 2:15 PM because it is one of the meetings that will be followed by a press conference with Fed Chairman Bernanke. The meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM while the press conference will begin at 2:30 PM and will probably lead to afternoon volatility in the markets and mortgage rates Wednesday. The Fed will also update their economic and monetary policy projections at 2:00 PM. Any significant revisions to the Fed’s outlook on unemployment, GDP growth or their timetable for keeping key rates at current levels will also cause volatility in the markets and mortgage rates.

February’s Existing Home Sales will be posted late Thursday morning by the National Association of Realtors. It will also give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. It is expected to reveal an increase in home resales, meaning the housing sector strengthened last month. Ideally, bond traders would prefer to see a decline in sales, pointing towards a still weakening housing sector. However, a small increase is expected, so it shouldn’t cause much alarm in the bond and mortgage markets. Bad news would be a sizable increase in sales, indicating that the housing sector is gaining momentum. That could be troublesome for the bond market and mortgage rates because housing and unemployment were the two biggest hurdles the economy had to overcome. Recent reports have some traders much more optimistic about the employment sector, so overwhelmingly strong housing news could lead to another rise in mortgage rates.

The Conference Board will post its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for February late Thursday morning also. This index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is considered to be moderately important, but likely will not have a significant impact on mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.5% increase, meaning it is predicting that economic activity will likely expand moderately in the coming weeks. A smaller than forecasted rise, or better yet a decline would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Overall, I am considering Wednesday as the key day of the week with the Fed events scheduled, but Monday could be interesting if the Cyprus news does cause stock selling when our markets open in the morning. The least important day will probably be Friday, however, we could see movement in rates any day. It appears that the recent stock rally could be losing steam and if that is true we may see funds shift back into bonds in the near future. Accordingly, I am shifting to a more optimistic stance on rates- at least for the time being.

This Week’s Market Commentary

March 11, 2013

This week brings us the release of five relevant economic reports along with two Treasury auctions for the markets to digest. A couple of the week’s reports are considered highly important, so we could see a fair amount of movement in rates again. There is nothing of relevance to mortgage rates being released or taking place Monday or Tuesday, so all of the week’s events are scheduled over three days.

The first thing on the calendar will come from the Commerce Department early Wednesday morning when they post February’s Retail Sales data. This data is extremely important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, data that is related usually has a big impact on the markets. This month’s report is expected to show an increase in sales of approximately 0.5%. If it reveals a larger than expected increase, the bond market will likely fall and mortgage rates will move higher as it would indicate a stronger level of economic growth than many had thought. If it reveals a much smaller than expected increase, I expect to see bond prices rise and mortgage rates improve Wednesday morning.

There are two Treasury auctions this week that could potentially affect mortgage rates. The first is the 10-year Treasury Note auction Wednesday and the 30-year bond sale will be held Thursday. Results of both sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET on the sale days. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading as it would hint that investors still have an appetite for longer-term securities. However, weak demand in the sale could lead to selling and an increase in mortgage rates late Wednesday and/or Thursday.

The Labor Department will post February’s Producer Price Index (PPI) early Thursday morning. This important index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index- the overall reading and the core data. The core data is more important and watched more closely because it excludes more volatile food and energy (including gasoline) prices. If the index shows a large increase, inflation concerns will rise, making long-term investments such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors. This would lead to higher mortgage rates Thursday morning. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.7% increase in the overall reading and a 0.2% increase in the core data.

Friday has the remaining three economic reports scheduled. February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released early Friday morning, which measures inflationary pressures at the very important consumer level of the economy. Its results can definitely have a huge impact on the bond market, especially long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds. It is expected to show a 0.5% increase in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the more important core data. If we see weaker than expected readings, bond prices should rise and mortgage rates would likely fall Friday.

The day’s next report will come mid-morning when February’s Industrial Production report is posted. This report measures manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.4% increase from January’s level. A decline would be considered extremely favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates because it would indicate manufacturing sector weakness and a broader economic recovery is more difficult if manufacturing activity is slipping.

The week’s final piece of data is the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for March just before 10:00 AM ET Friday. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases. This helps fuel consumer spending levels and economic growth. A drop in confidence will probably hurt the stock markets and boost bond prices, leading to lower mortgage rates, assuming the CPI matches forecasts. Bad news for bonds and mortgage rates would be rising confidence. It is expected to show a reading of 77.8, which would be a very slight increase from February’s final reading 77.6.

Overall, I would label Friday as the most important day of the week, but Wednesday is also likely to be active for mortgage rates. Stocks rallied last week, helping to drive bond yields and mortgage rates higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note rose above 2.00% again, closing the week at 2.04%. This is troublesome for mortgage rates if it remains above that threshold as it could become a floor of support. Since mortgage rates follow bond yields, it would mean rates are more likely to rise than move much lower in the immediate future. This week will tell us a lot about which direction bond yields and mortgage pricing will be headed in the near future, so please be cautious of still floating an interest rate and closing soon.

This Week’s Market Commentary

December 3, 2012

This week has five pieces of economic data set for release, including two that are considered to be highly important to the markets and mortgage rates. November’s manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is the first, coming at 10:00 AM ET Monday. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a considerable impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts call for a small decline in sentiment from October to November. October’s reading was previously announced as 51.7. A weaker reading than the expected 51.2 would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed trade executives felt business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. The lower the reading the better the news for bonds because waning sentiment indicates a slowing manufacturing sector and makes a broader economic recovery less likely.

The next piece of data that we need to be concerned with comes early Wednesday morning when revised 3rd Quarter Productivity numbers are posted. This index is expected to show an upward revision from the preliminary reading of worker productivity. Higher levels of productivity are thought to allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures rising. This is good news for the bond market because economic growth itself isn’t necessarily bad for the bond market. It’s the conditions around an expanding economy, such as inflation, that hurt bond prices and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an annual rate of 2.7%, up from the previous estimate of 1.9%. The higher the reading, the better the news for the bond market.

October’s Factory Orders will be posted late Wednesday morning. This report is similar to the Durable Goods Orders report that was released last week, except this one includes manufacturing orders for both durable and non-durable goods. This data usually isn’t a major influence on bond trading, but it does carry enough importance to impact mortgage rates if it shows a sizable variance from forecasts. Analysts are expecting to see a slight decline in new orders. The larger decline, the better the news for bond prices and mortgage rates because it would signal manufacturing sector weakness. If we do see a sizable drop in new orders, the bond market could thrive, improving mortgage rates Wednesday morning.
There is no other relevant economic news scheduled for release until Friday morning. There are a couple of potentially relevant foreign central bank announcements early Thursday morning that we will be watching. Announcements from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, which are similar to our FOMC meetings, could influence the global markets including ours. The impact will probably be minimal, but we do need to keep an eye on those announcements early Thursday.

The biggest news of the week comes Friday morning when the Labor Department posts November’s Employment figures. This is arguably the most important monthly report we see. It is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most watched ones are the unemployment rate, the number of news jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for a 0.1% increase in the unemployment rate to 8.0% while 90,000 new jobs were added to the economy. The income reading is forecasted to show an increase of 0.2%. An ideal scenario for mortgage shoppers would be a higher unemployment rate than 8.0%, a smaller increase in payrolls (or a decline) and no change in the earnings reading. If we are fortunate enough to hit the trifecta with all three, we should see the stock markets fall, bond prices rise and mortgage rates move lower Friday. However, stronger than expected readings would likely fuel a stock rally and bond sell-off that would lead to higher mortgage rates.

Also Friday is the release of December’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and can usually have enough of an impact on the financial markets to change mortgage rates slightly. Consumer sentiment or confidence is tracked because the more comfortable consumers are about their own financial situations, the more likely they are to make a large purchase in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the economy, any related data is watched closely. Friday’s release is expected to show a reading of 82.4, which would be a small decline from last month’s final reading of 82.7. A larger decline in confidence would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Overall, look for Friday to be the key day of the week simply due to the fact we are getting the monthly Employment report that day. Monday’s ISM report is also considered highly important, but a level below the Employment report. Still it could be a market mover and set the tone for the markets until Friday’s data is posted. The middle part of the week is the lightest, which is a change from most weeks. I would pick Tuesday to be the least important day of the week, however, any day can bring movement in mortgage rates if the stock markets make a sizable move or something unexpected happens here or in the geopolitical arena. Therefore, I would recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

This Week’s Market Commentary

October 8, 2012

This week brings us the release of four economic reports that are of interest to the mortgage market along with two fairly important Treasury auctions. The week also gets heavy in quarterly earnings releases for companies, which could cause significant movement in the stock markets. The earnings results could affect bond trading as investors move funds into stocks if the reports are good. The other possibility is that earnings would generally disappoint, meaning investors may move funds out of stocks and into bonds as a safe-haven. The latter would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The bond market is closed Monday in observance of the Columbus Day holiday and will reopen Tuesday morning.  The stock markets are open for trading Monday, so their movement is worth watching as a sizable move up or down in the major indexes may influence bond trading and mortgage pricing early Tuesday morning. I suspect many mortgage lenders will be closed tomorrow, as will U.S. banks. If anyone is open for business and does post rates tomorrow, you can expect to see an increase of approximately .125 of a discount point from Friday’s morning pricing due to weakness in bonds late Friday afternoon.

The first report of the week comes at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday afternoon when the Federal Reserve posts its’ Beige Book. This report details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by Fed region and is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve when determining monetary policy at their FOMC meetings. If it reveals stronger signs of economic growth from the last release, we could see mortgage rates revise higher Wednesday afternoon.

Also Wednesday is the first of two important Treasury auctions this week. The sale of 10-year Notes will be held Wednesday while 30-year Bonds will be sold Thursday. We often see some weakness in bonds ahead of the sales as the firms participating prepare for them. However, as long as the auctions are met with decent demand from investors, the firms usually buy them back. This tends to help recover any presale losses. But, if the sales are met with a lackluster interest from investors- particularly international buyers, the bond market may move lower after the results are posted and mortgage rates may move higher. Those results will be announced at 1:00 PM each sale day.

August’s Trade Balance report will be released early Thursday morning. It gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit but is the week’s least important report and likely will have little impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. Analysts are expecting to see a $43.8 billion deficit, but it will take a wide variance from forecasts to directly influence mortgage pricing.

The week closes with two reports being posted Friday morning, one of which is very important to the bond market and mortgage rates. That would be September’s Producer Price Index (PPI) early Friday morning. This is one of the two very important inflation readings we get each month. This index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.8% increase in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. A larger than expected increase could raise concerns in the bond market about future inflation and lead to higher mortgage rates Friday. However, weaker than expected readings should result in bond market strength and lower mortgage pricing.

The last report of the week is October’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment late Friday morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. Rising confidence means consumers feel better about their own financial and employment situations, meaning they are more apt to make a large purchase in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related date is watched closely. Good news for the bond market would be a sizable decline in consumer confidence, but due to the importance of Friday’s other report, I suspect this data will have little impact on mortgage rates. It is expected to show a reading of 78.5, up slightly from September’s final of 78.3.

Overall, I am expecting to see a fair amount of movement in mortgage rates again this week, but the biggest changes will likely come the latter part of the week. The key economic report is Friday’s PPI but the Fed’s Beige Book also has the potential to influence the markets and mortgage rates if it shows any surprises. Therefore, we can label Wednesday or Friday as the most important day of the week. Also worth noting is the active week for corporate earnings that can cause a great deal of volatility in stocks and mortgage rates any day of the week. Accordingly, please proceed cautiously and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

This week’s market commentary

This week brings us the release of six relevant economic reports for the bond market to digest in addition to two potentially influential Treasury auctions. Most of the reports are considered to be of moderate to fairly high importance to the markets, so they do have the potential to affect mortgage rates. We also have to consider stock market swings as they also can have a direct impact on bond trading and mortgage pricing, as we have seen over the past few weeks. Generally speaking, stock market strength makes bonds less appealing to investors and leads to higher mortgage pricing. On the other hand, stock weakness often leads to safe-haven investing where investors move funds away from stocks and into bonds to escape the volatility. That translates into higher bond prices and lower mortgage rates.

The first release of the week is September’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) late Tuesday morning. This Conference Board index will be posted at 10:00 AM ET and gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show an increase in confidence from last month’s reading, indicating that consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations than last month, therefore, more likely to make a large purchase in the near future. This is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because consumer spending fuels economic growth. Analysts are calling for a reading of approximately 63.0, up from August’s 60.6 reading. The smaller the reading, the better the news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

August’s New Home Sales will be released late Wednesday morning. The Commerce Department is expected to say that sales of newly constructed homes rose last month, indicating housing sector strength. This report will likely not have a noticeable impact on mortgage rates unless its readings differ greatly from forecasts. This is the week’s least important report in terms of potential impact on mortgage rates, partly because it covers the small portion of all homes sales that last week’s Existing Home Sales report did not.

The Treasury will sell 5-year Notes Wednesday and 7-year Notes Thursday, which will tell us if there is an appetite for medium-term securities. If investor demand in these sales is strong, particularly from international buyers, the broader bond market should move higher, pushing mortgage rates lower. But a lackluster interest from investors could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage pricing. The results of the sales will be announced at 1:00 PM ET each day, so any reaction to the results will come during afternoon trading Wednesday and Thursday. Recent sales in these securities have not shown high levels of investor interest, so I do not have high expectations for this week’s auctions.

August’s Durable Goods Orders is the week’s most important data and will be posted early Thursday morning. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories. Big-ticket products are items that are expected to last three or more years. Analysts are expecting to see a sizable drop of 5.1% in new orders, indicating softening conditions in the manufacturing sector. That could help boost bond prices and cause mortgage rates to drop Thursday because signs of economic weakness make longer-term securities more appealing to investors. However, a sizable increase would indicate a stronger than expected manufacturing sector and would likely help push mortgage rates higher. It is worth noting that this data is known to be quite volatile from month-to-month, so a slight or moderate change may not affect mortgage pricing.

Also Thursday morning is the final revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Since this data is aged now and the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter GDP will be released next month, I don’t see this revision having much of an impact on the financial markets or mortgage pricing. The GDP is important because it is the total sum of all goods and services produced within the U.S. and is considered the best measurement of economic activity. It is expected to show no change from the previous estimate of a 1.7% increase in the GDP. It will take a fairly large revision for this data to move mortgage rates Thursday.

Friday has two reports scheduled that may influence mortgage rates. The first is August’s Personal Income and Outlays early Friday morning. It gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. This is relevant to the markets because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Rising income generally indicates that consumers have more money to spend, making economic growth more of a possibility. This is negative news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it raises inflation and economic growth concerns, making long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors. It is expected to show an increase of 0.2% in income and a 0.5% increase in spending. If we see weaker than expected readings, the bond market should react positively, leading to lower rates Friday.

The second report is the University of Michigan’s revised Index of Consumer Sentiment for September. The preliminary reading that was released earlier this month showed a 79.2 reading. Analysts are expecting to see a small downward revision, meaning consumer confidence was slightly weaker than previously thought. As with Tuesday’s CCI release, a lower than expected reading would be good news for bonds and should help improve mortgage rates.

Overall, it is likely going to be a fairly active week in the markets and mortgage rates again. The most important day will likely be Tuesday or Thursday, but Friday’s data can also influence mortgage rates. The best candidate for the calmest day of the week appears to be Monday with no relevant data being released and an improvement in mortgage rates waiting for borrowers due to strength late Friday. I am still looking for stocks to move lower before they move much higher, which would push investor funds into bonds and drive mortgage rates lower. Therefore, I remain optimistic towards mortgage rates, both short and long-term, but still recommend maintaining fairly regular contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

This Week’s Market Commentary

September 10, 2012

This week brings us the release of six relevant economic reports that may influence mortgage rates in addition to two Treasury auctions and an afternoon of FOMC events. Several of the economic reports and the FOMC stuff are all considered to be highly important to the financial and mortgage markets, meaning that we may see significant changes to rates this week. There is a very good chance of seeing noticeable changes in rates several days. There is no relevant news scheduled to be posted Monday, so look for the stock markets to be the biggest force behind bond trading and changes to mortgage pricing until we get to the middle part of the week.

The week’s first event is July’s Goods and Services Trade Balance data early Tuesday morning, giving us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is expected to show a deficit of approximately $44.0 billion, which would be an increase from June’s $42.9 billion. However, I would consider this the least important of this week’s events, meaning it will likely have little impact on bond trading or mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

There are two Treasury auctions this week that have the potential to influence mortgage rates. The first is Wednesday’s 10-year Treasury Note auction, which will be followed by a 30-year Bond auction Thursday. It is fairly common to see some weakness in bonds before these sales as investors prepare for them. If the sales are met with a decent demand from investors, indicating that interest in longer-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds still exists, the earlier losses are usually recovered after the results are announced. The results of Wednesday’s sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET while Thursday’s results are set for 11:30 AM ET due to other events scheduled that day. If demand was strong, particularly from international investors, we should see mortgage rates improve during afternoon trading Wednesday. However, due to the magnitude of Thursday’s Fed events, that day’s auction will likely have little impact on the bond market and mortgage rates.

One of the week’s two important inflation readings is the only economic report scheduled for release Thursday morning. The Labor Department will post August’s Producer Price Index (PPI) at 8:30 AM ET, giving us an important measurement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two readings that analysts follow in this release. They are the overall index and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two since it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Analysts are predicting a 1.2% increase in the overall index, and a rise of 0.2% in the core data. Stronger than expected readings could fuel inflation concerns in the bond market. That would be bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because inflation is the number one nemesis of the bond market as it erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments. As inflation becomes more of a concern in the markets, bonds become less appealing to investors, leading to falling prices and higher mortgage rates.

Thursday’s Fed events start with the 12:30 PM adjournment of the FOMC meeting that began Wednesday. It is widely expected that Mr. Bernanke and company will not change key short-term interest rates at this meeting, but there is a great deal of hope in the market that we are getting closer to another move by the Fed such as QE3. Friday’s Employment numbers helped bolster the calls for Fed action. I believe that an announcement of a bond buying program should rally not only stocks but also bonds and mortgage rates because those are the securities that the Fed will purchase in the QE program. On the other hand, the lack of at least a strong indication that QE3 is coming soon will probably lead to selling in the markets and an upward revision to mortgage rates.

Also worth noting is that the FOMC meeting is ending earlier than the traditional 2:15 PM because it is one of the meetings that will be followed by a press conference with Fed Chairman Bernanke. The meeting will adjourn at 12:30 PM while the press conference will begin at 2:15 PM and will probably lead to afternoon volatility in the markets and mortgage rates Thursday. The Fed will also update their economic and monetary policy projections right before the press conference begins. They are expected to be posted at 2:00 PM ET. Any significant revisions to the Fed’s outlook on unemployment, GDP growth or their timetable for keeping key rates at current levels will also cause volatility in the markets and mortgage rates.

Friday has the remaining four pieces of economic data with two of them considered to be major releases. Those highly important reports are August’s Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index (CPI) will both be posted at 8:30 AM. The sales report will give us a very important measurement of consumer spending, which is extremely relevant to the markets because it makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.7% increase in sales. Analysts are also calling for a 0.8% rise in sales if more volatile auto transactions are excluded. Larger than expected increases would be considered bad news for bonds and likely lead to an increase in mortgage pricing since it would indicate economic growth.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is also one of the most important reports we see each month. It is considered to be a key indicator of inflation at the consumer level of the economy. As with its’ sister PPI report, there are two readings in the report- the overall index and the core data reading. Current forecasts show a 0.6% increase in the overall reading and a 0.2% rise in the core data reading. As with the PPI, a larger increase in the core data would signal rising inflation and would likely lead to higher mortgage rates Friday morning.

August’s Industrial Production data will be posted mid-morning Friday. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is considered to be moderately important but could help change mortgage rates if there is a significant difference between forecasts and the actual reading. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% decline from July’s level of output. A sizable increase could lead to slightly higher mortgage rates, while a weaker than expected figure would indicate a softer than thought manufacturing sector and would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, the CPI and Retail Sales reports are the key data of the day and will likely influence mortgage pricing much more than the production report will.

The last release of the week will be posted by the University of Michigan late Friday morning. Their Index of Consumer Sentiment will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers’ willingness to spend. If consumer confidence in their own financial situation is rising is rising, they are more apt to make large purchases. But, if they are growing more concerned about their job security or finances, they probably will delay making that large purchase. This influences future consumer spending data and can impact the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 73.3, which would mean confidence slipped from August’s level of 74.3. That would be considered favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates because waning consumer spending indicates slower economic growth.

Overall, I think we need to label Thursday as the most important day of the week with the PPI and Fed events scheduled. However, Friday has some very important economic data set for release and also has the potential to heavily influence bond trading and mortgage rates. Monday will probably end up being the calmest day for mortgage rates, but we still may see minor changes if the stock markets show much movement. I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate, especially the latter part of the week.