This Week’s Market Commentary

February 6, 2012

There are only two pieces of monthly economic data scheduled for release this week. Neither of them is considered to be highly important, so we don’t have much to pin our hopes on or to be concerned with this week.

There are two Treasury auctions on the calendar that may influence mortgage rates the middle part of the week and the second part of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony to Congress, but no important economic data.

Nothing of concern is due tomorrow, so look for the stock markets and news from Europe- particularly Greece, to drive the markets tomorrow. Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak to the Senate Budget Committee at 10:00 AM Tuesday. I don’t expect him to say anything different than he said last week to the House Budget Committee, but the Q&A portion of his appearance could lead to something new. It is worth watching, but it will probably not lead to a noticeable change in the markets or mortgage rates.

The two important Treasury auctions come Wednesday and Thursday when 10-year Notes and 30-year Bonds are sold. The 10-year sale is the more important one as it will give us a better indication of demand of mortgage-related securities. If the sales are met with a strong demand from investors, we should see the bond market move higher during afternoon trading the days of the auctions. But a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term U.S. securities and lead to broader bond selling. The selling in bonds would likely result in upward afternoon revisions to mortgage rates.

With little monthly and no quarterly economic reports being posted, Thursday’s weekly release of unemployment figures may end up moving the markets and mortgage rates more than it traditionally does. The Labor Department is expected to announce that 370,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, rising slightly from the previous week’s total. The higher the number of new claims for benefits, the better the news for the bond market and mortgage pricing as it would indicate weakness in the employment sector.

The first monthly report comes early Friday morning when December’s Goods and Services Trade Balance data will be posted. This report measures the U.S. trade deficit and can affect the value of the U.S. dollar versus other currencies, but it usually does not cause enough movement in bond prices to affect mortgage rates. It is expected to show a $48.2 billion trade deficit.

February’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment will be released late Friday morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. If it shows an increase in consumer confidence, the stock markets may move higher and bond prices could fall. It is currently expected to come in at 74.0, down from January’s final reading of 75.0. That would indicate consumers were less optimistic about their own financial situations than last month and are less likely to make large purchases in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage pricing.

Overall, despite being a fairly light week in terms of economic releases and relate events, it is still relatively crucial for the mortgage market. We saw the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note spike higher Friday as a result of the stronger than expected employment data. Stocks rallied as a result of that data, extending the 2012 stock rally that has pushed the Dow up over 5% and the Nasdaq up 11% year-to-date. Both indexes are at their highest levels since May 2008 and December 2000 respectively. This has me believing we are due to see a pullback in stocks fairly soon. If/when this happens, we should see funds shift back into bonds for safety, leading to lower mortgage rates. Keep in mind that this is more or less just speculation, but I am expecting to move to a less conservative approach regarding short-term mortgage rates in the near future.

Common First Time Homebuyer Mistakes

February 1, 2012

Many first-time homebuyers make simple and common mistakes that are easily avoidable.
They face multiple challenges anyway, such as finding the right home, the right agent, getting approved for a mortgage, and staying within their budget. By avoiding these common mistakes, the process of buying a home can be much less stressful.

1. Overlooking extra costs of homeownership
While some see themselves as ready for homeownership once they can afford a mortgage payment, it is important to remember the other fees that come along with owning a home. Property taxes, home owners association fees, maintenance, higher water and electrical bills, and property insurance are among the extra costs of owning a home, and should be calculated into your budget.

2. Not getting preapproved
It is very important to get preapproved for a loan before you go out searching for the perfect place. That way, you will be making financially sound decisions versus unrealistic emotional ones as to what you can afford.

3. Spending your entire savings on your down payment
This is one of the most common mistakes first time homebuyers make. Homebuyers who put 20 percent or more down don’t have to pay for mortgage insurance when getting a conventional mortgage, which often translates into substantial savings on the monthly payment. However, it is smarter to keep your rainy day savings intact instead.

Top Five Tips to Increase Your Home's Appraisal Value

The importance of the appraisal in a real estate transaction can’t be overestimated. An appraisal can completely kill a deal if it does not turn out well.

The Wall Street Journal recently posted an article with tips on upping your homes value during an appraisal, and here are some of our top picks:

1. Spruce up the house
While a couple of dishes in the sink won’t make a difference, there are quick fixes that do. Overgrown landscaping should be trimmed, and things like marks on walls and stained carpets should be cleaned. These affect the home’s overall value in appraisal, according to the WSJ.

2. Curb appeal matters
Take the time to mow the lawn, trim the hedges, and pull out any weeds. A nice-looking yard is not only a great first impression, but it can offset any nearby foreclosed properties.

3. Note the neighborhood improvements
Location, location, location! Make note of any changes to the neighborhood that are positive, such as a new playground or a Whole Foods nearby.

4. Keep the $500 rule in mind
According to the WSJ, appraisers often value a home in $500 increments. This means that if there is a repair over $500 that can or ought to be made, do it, or it could count against the property’s value.

5. Maintain a list of all updates to home
All updates, major and minor, to the home should be listed. “Itemize each update with the approximate date and approximate cost,” recommends Matthew George, the chief appraiser of Eagle Appraisals Inc. Remember to include things the appraiser might not notice, such as insulation and roof updates.

Credit Bureaus Selling Your Info: How to Opt Out

Written in our customer agreements with borrowers is a promise that our company would never release personal or financial information. Unfortunately, credit bureaus do not abide by these same rules.

The credit bureaus are the culprits on trigger leads which can cause solicitation for anyone borrowing for a home loan because they sell the leads to companies.  It’s not the vendors (LandSafe, IR, etc). 

Unfortunately, we are at the mercy of the bureaus on this deal. However, there are simple steps you can take to opt out of your information being sold by credit bureaus.

How to opt out of trigger leads
There are two ways to opt-out of trigger lead programs and ensure your information is not sold.

1. Complete and submit an online form at www.optoutprescreen.com. This method stops trigger leads for five years.

2. Complete a separate form at the same Web site (www.optoutprescreen.com) and then print, sign and mail a letter generated by that form to confirm your opt-out request. This method stops trigger leads permanently.

Both of the opt-out methods take five days to become effective, so if you don’t want your information to be sold, you need to opt-out at least five days before you make a specific inquiry.

If your information is already in the trigger lead pool, you may continue to receive telephone calls and mailings for some time after you elect to opt out.

Opting out via one of these methods is highly recommended for your privacy.

Is San Francisco Becoming a Seller’s Market?

January 24, 2012

Since the summer season wound down in September, the number of homes on the market in San Francisco has declined to the point that sellers face far less competition.

According to an article in the San Francisco Chronicle, the amount of homes for sale has hit a 12 month low.
Redfin’s analytical data has “found that given the relatively sparse number of homes on the market, it’s becoming more of a – surprise! – seller’s market out there,” reported the Chronicle.

In a balanced housing market, there is typically 5-6 months “supply,” or homes for sale. In December San Francisco hit a low of a 1.6 month supply.

Are you surprised by this change in the housing market in the city by the bay?

TeenForce Workers at Mortgage California Named Top Two in Program

January 13, 2012

At our company headquarters we employ several teenagers through TeenForce, a non-profit organization that helps teenagers gain work experience. Two of our teens have just been named the #1 and #2 workers in TeenForce!
Alyssa Schweickert, the #1 TeenForce worker in 2011, logged 670 hours. Melissa Dalla, the #2 TeenForce worker, logged 652 hours.
We are extremely proud of them and all of the hard work they have done, as well as all of our TeenForce employees. Congratulations, Alyssa and Melissa!

This Week’s Market Commentary

This week bring us the release of only three monthly reports that are relevant to the bond market and mortgage rates, but two of them are considered to be highly important.

In addition to those three reports, we also will get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting that may influence the markets and possibly mortgage rates. The financial markets are closed today due to the New Year’s Day holiday.

The first report is the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index for December late tomorrow morning. This highly important index measures manufacturer sentiment. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed manufacturing executives felt that business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened.

That indicates manufacturing sector strength rather than contraction. Analysts are currently expecting to see a 53.4 reading in this month’s release, meaning that sentiment strengthened from November’s 52.7. A smaller reading will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers, while a higher than expected reading could lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow morning as it would point towards economic strength.

Also tomorrow is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. This will give market participants insight to the Fed’s thinking and concerns regarding the economy, inflation and monetary policy. It is one of those pieces of information that may cause a great deal of volatility in the markets or be a non-factor, depending on what the minutes show. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so they won’t affect the markets or mortgage rates until afternoon hours.

The Commerce Department will post November’s Factory Orders data late Wednesday morning. This data gives us a fairly important measurement of manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to the Durable Goods Orders release that was posted late last week, except this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Durable goods are items that are expected to last three or more years such as electronics and autos. Examples of non-durable goods are food and clothing. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 2.1% in new orders. This report generally does not have a huge impact on the bond market or mortgage rates, but it can influence bond trading enough to create a minor change in rates. The smaller the increase, the better the news for mortgage rates.

The final report of the week comes Friday morning when the Labor Department will post December’s employment figures. The Employment report is arguably the most important monthly release we see. It gives us the national unemployment rate, the number of jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings, which is a key measure of wage inflation. Rising unemployment, a decline in payrolls and earnings would be ideal news for the bond market.

Current forecasts call for a 0.1% rise from November’s unemployment rate of 8.6%, 150,000 new jobs added to the economy and an increase in earnings of 0.2%. If we see weaker than expected results, mortgage rates should improve Friday. However, stronger than expected readings will likely raise optimism about the economy, pushing mortgage rates sharply higher.

Overall, the key data of the week will be Friday’s Employment report, but look for tomorrow and Wednesday to be active due to the economic data and FOMC minutes scheduled. If they give us favorable results, mortgage rates will likely move lower for the week. But if not, we can expect to see mortgage rates move higher on the week.