This Week’s Market Commentary

This week bring us the release of only three monthly reports that are relevant to the bond market and mortgage rates, but two of them are considered to be highly important.

In addition to those three reports, we also will get the minutes from the last FOMC meeting that may influence the markets and possibly mortgage rates. The financial markets are closed today due to the New Year’s Day holiday.

The first report is the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index for December late tomorrow morning. This highly important index measures manufacturer sentiment. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed manufacturing executives felt that business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened.

That indicates manufacturing sector strength rather than contraction. Analysts are currently expecting to see a 53.4 reading in this month’s release, meaning that sentiment strengthened from November’s 52.7. A smaller reading will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers, while a higher than expected reading could lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow morning as it would point towards economic strength.

Also tomorrow is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. This will give market participants insight to the Fed’s thinking and concerns regarding the economy, inflation and monetary policy. It is one of those pieces of information that may cause a great deal of volatility in the markets or be a non-factor, depending on what the minutes show. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so they won’t affect the markets or mortgage rates until afternoon hours.

The Commerce Department will post November’s Factory Orders data late Wednesday morning. This data gives us a fairly important measurement of manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to the Durable Goods Orders release that was posted late last week, except this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Durable goods are items that are expected to last three or more years such as electronics and autos. Examples of non-durable goods are food and clothing. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 2.1% in new orders. This report generally does not have a huge impact on the bond market or mortgage rates, but it can influence bond trading enough to create a minor change in rates. The smaller the increase, the better the news for mortgage rates.

The final report of the week comes Friday morning when the Labor Department will post December’s employment figures. The Employment report is arguably the most important monthly release we see. It gives us the national unemployment rate, the number of jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings, which is a key measure of wage inflation. Rising unemployment, a decline in payrolls and earnings would be ideal news for the bond market.

Current forecasts call for a 0.1% rise from November’s unemployment rate of 8.6%, 150,000 new jobs added to the economy and an increase in earnings of 0.2%. If we see weaker than expected results, mortgage rates should improve Friday. However, stronger than expected readings will likely raise optimism about the economy, pushing mortgage rates sharply higher.

Overall, the key data of the week will be Friday’s Employment report, but look for tomorrow and Wednesday to be active due to the economic data and FOMC minutes scheduled. If they give us favorable results, mortgage rates will likely move lower for the week. But if not, we can expect to see mortgage rates move higher on the week.

This Week’s Market Commentary

This holiday-shortened trading week brings us the release of eight monthly or quarterly economic reports in addition to two semi-relevant Treasury auctions.

None of the releases are considered to be highly important to the markets and mortgage rates, but several of them do have the potential to cause some movement in rates. The more important news comes later in the week. Therefore, we may see more movement in mortgage pricing as the week progresses.

There is nothing of relevance scheduled for release tomorrow. This means we can look towards the stock markets for guidance on bond and mortgage rate direction. The Europe debt crisis will likely be in the headlines this week as leaders move to avoid downgrades by credit rating agencies that would be equivalent to adding gasoline to the fire. If the actions taken overseas are strong enough to calm investor fears here, stocks may bode well for the week, making it difficult for bonds to rally and push mortgage rates lower. On the other hand, if it becomes evident that the downgrades to their debt are unavoidable, fears about the impact they would have on the global economy will probably fuel stock selling and bond buying here. The latter would be good news for mortgage rates.

Tuesday’s only data is November’s Housing Starts, but it is the week’s least important data. I don’t see it causing much movement in mortgage rates unless it shows a huge variance from expectations. It is expected to show little change in construction starts of new homes, hinting at a flat housing sector last month. Generally speaking, an increase in new starts would be bad news for bonds and mortgage pricing, but unless there is a significant surprise it will likely have little impact on Tuesday’s mortgage rates.

November’s Existing Home Sales figures will be posted late Wednesday morning. This release will come from the National Association of Realtors while its sister release, Friday’s New Home Sales data, is a Commerce Department report. Both give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, however, neither is considered to be of high importance. And both of the reports are expected to show increases in sales, indicating housing sector growth. Weaker than expected readings would be considered positive for bonds and mortgage rates because they hint at a still weakening housing market. But unless the actual readings vary greatly from forecasts, the results will probably have little or no impact on mortgage rates.

Thursday brings us the release of three reports, with the first being the final revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). I don’t think this data will have an impact on mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from its expected reading. Last month’s first revision showed that the economy expanded at a 2.0% annual pace during the quarter and this month’s revision is expected to show no change. A revision higher than the 2.0% rate that is expected would be considered bad news for bonds. But since this data is quite aged at this point, I don’t think it will have much of an impact on mortgage rates Thursday.

The second report of the day comes just before 10:00 AM ET when the revised University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for December is posted. Current forecasts are calling for a small upward revision from the preliminary reading of 67.7. This is fairly important because rising consumer confidence indicates that consumers may be more apt to make large purchases in the near future. A reading above the 68.0 that is forecasted would be negative for bonds and mortgage rates.

The Conference Board will release their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for the month of November. This 10:00 AM release attempts to measure or predict economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a small increase in activity, meaning that it predicts a slowly expanding economy over the next several months. This probably will not have much of an impact on bond prices or affect mortgage rates unless it exceeds current forecasts of a 0.3% increase from October’s reading. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds and mortgage pricing. If it shows a smaller increase, the bond market may move slightly higher, leading to a minor improvement in rates.

The final two economic reports of the week come Friday morning along with November’s New Home sales. The first is November’s Personal Income and Outlays data. It will give us an important measurement of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data usually has a noticeable impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.2% increase in income and a 0.3% increase in spending. If this report reveals weaker than expected readings, we should see the bond market improve and mortgage rates drop slightly Friday morning.

November’s Durable Goods Orders is the last report, also being posted early Friday morning. This data gives us an important measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items or products that are expected to last at least three years. Analysts are expecting the report to show a 2.0% rise in new orders. A smaller increase in orders would indicate that the manufacturing sector was weaker than many had thought. This would be good news for the bond market and should drive mortgage rates lower. However, a larger jump in orders could lead to mortgage rates moving higher early Friday morning. This data is known to be quite volatile from month-to-month, so it is not unusual to see large headline numbers on this report.

This week also has Treasury auctions scheduled the first three days. The two that are most likely to influence mortgage rates are Tuesday’s 5-year and Wednesday’s 7-year Note sales. If those sales are met with a strong demand, particularly Wednesday’s auction, bond prices may rise during afternoon trading. This could lead to improvements to mortgage rates shortly after the results of the sales are posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. But a lackluster investor demand may create bond selling and upward revisions to mortgage rates.

Overall, I am expecting to see some movement in the markets and mortgage rates, especially if we get some surprising results from the week’s data or news about Europe’s financial crisis. Despite the holiday season, we need to keep a cautious approach toward rates because we are likely to see very thin trading (light volume) as a result of many traders keeping short hours or home for the holiday altogether. This means that firms that trade bonds will likely be keeping only a skeleton staff the latter part of the week and raises the possibility of a stronger reaction to surprises in the economic data than we normally would see.

The least important day for mortgage rates will likely be tomorrow unless something drastic happens overnight. We will probably see the most movement in rates Friday, but Thursday’s economic data can also move mortgage pricing noticeably. With the Christmas holiday next weekend, it is being observed next Monday. The bond market will close early this Friday afternoon ahead of the holiday and will reopen next Tuesday morning. Accordingly, proceed cautiously this week if still floating an interest rate and closing by the end of the year.

Ten Ways to Volunteer with Your Kids This Holiday Season

The holiday season is filled with media messages to children that getting is more important than giving.
Contributing to your community and volunteering with your kids during this time of year can be a great way to give back, bond as a family, and teach your kids important life lessons.
Karen Bantuveris, CEO and Founder of VolunteerSpot, created a top ten list of volunteer activities to do with your family:

For younger children:

• Decorate reusable grocery bags and fill them with their favorite non-perishable food items. Feeding America offers a Food Bank locator, searchable by zip code.
• Stuff new, warm socks with water bottles and granola bars to give to homeless men and women you pass on street corners.
• Decorate holiday cards for soldiers overseas.
• Box up their gently used clothing to donate to your local foster care foundation.

Older Kids

• Donate their gently used books and DVDs to a local children’s hospital.
• Make holiday decorations and cards and then sing carols for nursing home residents. Call ahead to schedule a visit.
• Engage a team of secret friends to clandestinely rake leaves or shovel snow for an elderly neighbor for a whole month.
• Collect used towels and pet toys for the local animal shelter.
• Host a hot chocolate or cider stand and donate the proceeds to a charity of their choosing.
• Adopt a family for the holidays through a local business or faith group, and have your kids help shop for that family.

These activities suggested by Bantuveris are all great ways to give back during the holiday season, and to include your children in the giving spirit. If you are donating items, bring the children so they feel more involved. More importantly, talk to them about your family experience afterwards and how it feels to volunteer.

This could be the start of a new family tradition!

Tagged as: charity, family, holidays, kids, volunteering

Creative Ways to Retire Without Savings

Like many baby-boomers today, you may be faced with an upcoming retirement and a lack of a retirement savings account due to the rough economic times of the past few years.

A recent CBS MoneyWatch article tackles this problem by suggesting resourceful ways to make retirement work for you.

One bold idea is to pair up with another married, retiring couple, pooling together Social Security income for a manageable budget. Social Security income at age 66 will be $2,000 per month, with an additional $1,000 per month for the spouse, resulting in a $36,000 per year income.

If you find a like minded couple, consider moving into a three bedroom house together, making the combined household income $72,000. This is higher than the 2009 national average income.

Another tactic is to delay retirement until age 70, in which case your monthly Social Security income will increase to $2,640 per month. In this situation, your spouse would not need to delay past age 66 to receive the $1,000 per month. “You’d want to file and suspend your Social Security income at age 66, so your spouse can start the $1,000 monthly spousal benefit income at age 66,” advised the article.

At age 70, your combined income would be $43,680 per year following this plan. If you were to pair up with another married couple, that Social Security income would increase to $87,360 per year.

Your circumstances may not be right for such an arrangement, but this is just one example of creative and resourceful ways to head into retirement in this economic climate.

Do You Have An Extra Coat or Blanket In Your Closet?

GIVE THE GIFT OF WARMTH

Mortgage California

is collecting clean, reusable coats and blankets for men, women, and children

December 1st - January 6th

Collection boxes are located at:

1875 S.Grant Street, Suite 700

San Mateo, CA 94402

On Behalf of CALL Primrose and Shelter Network Redwood Family House Program

This Week’s Market Commentary

This holiday-shortened week brings us the release of five relevant economic reports for the markets to digest along with the last FOMC meeting’s minutes and two potentially important Treasury auctions.

All of the week’s data is being posted over three days due to the Thanksgiving holiday, so the first part of the week should be interesting for mortgage shoppers.

October’s Existing Home Sales data will be posted by the National Association of Realtors late Monday morning. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking home resales. This report is expected to show a decline in sales, meaning the housing sector weakened last month. That would be good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing, but unless it shows a significant surprise, it will likely not have a major impact on tomorrow’s mortgage rates.

Tuesday has the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It is expected to show little change from last month’s preliminary reading of a 2.5% annual rate of expansion. The GDP measures the total of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best measurement of economic activity. Current forecasts call for a reading of approximately 2.4%, meaning that there was slightly less economic growth during the third quarter than previously thought. This would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but it will likely take a larger decline to improve mortgage rates Tuesday morning.

Also worth noting is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting Tuesday afternoon. Traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed’s next move regarding monetary policy. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, therefore, any reaction will come during afternoon trading. This release is one of those that may cause some volatility in the markets after they are posted, or could be a non-factor. If they show anything surprising, we may see some movement in rates Tuesday afternoon, but it is more likely there will be little reaction since Fed Chairman Bernanke held a press conference following the most recent meeting.

There are three monthly reports scheduled for Wednesday morning. October’s Durable Goods Orders is the first and will be posted at 8:30 AM ET. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items, but is known to be quite volatile from month-to-month. It is expected to show a 1.0% decline in new orders. A larger than expected drop would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates as it would indicate manufacturing sector weakness.

The second is October’s Personal Income and Outlays data. This data measures consumers’ ability to spend and their current spending habits. This is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. It is expected to show that income rose 0.3% and that spending increased 0.3%. Smaller than expected readings would mean consumers had less money to spend and were spending less than thought. That would be good news for bonds and could lead to improvements in mortgage rates.
The revised November reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will be posted late Wednesday morning. It will give us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, consumers are more apt to make a large purchase in the near future, fueling economic activity. Analysts are expecting to see little change to the preliminary reading of 64.2. Unless we see a significant variance from the forecasted reading, I don’t think this data will cause much movement in mortgage rates Wednesday.

In addition to this week’s economic reports, there are two relatively important Treasury auctions that may also influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates. There will be an auction of 5-year Treasury Notes Tuesday and 7-year Notes on Wednesday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions in mortgage rates. However, strong sales usually make bonds more attractive to investors and bring more funds into the bond market. The buying of bonds that follows often translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET auction day, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon hours.

The financial markets will be closed Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. There will not be an early close Wednesday ahead of the holiday, but they will close early Friday and will reopen next Monday morning. I suspect that Friday will be a very light day in bond trading as many market participants will be home. Banks have to be open Friday, but we will likely see little change to mortgage rates that day.

Home Improvement Stores Evolving for Budget-Conscience Customers

Home Improvement Stores Evolving for Budget-Conscience Consumers

by admin on May 18, 2011

Home improvement retailers, including giants Home Depot Inc. and Lowe’s Co., are changing with the economic times. In acknowledgement of the lower-cost projects people are taking on in their homes in contrast with past remodels on new real estate and in a better market, the stores are pushing more affordable products.

Home Depot, the nation’s largest home improvement chain, is focusing its attention on more budget-friendly products for financially stressed consumers.
According to a recent AP article, Home Depot executives said that “their chain is beefing up offerings like paint and soft-sided tool storage as maintenance and repair — instead of major renovations — remain at the forefront of consumers’ minds.”
Lowe’s, on the other hand, is focusing on expanding customer services. This includes outdoor maintenance and repair.  In addition, they are concerned with rising gas prices leading to consumers shopping at the closest store, which by store count, is more likely Home Depot. New locations in strategic locations are being planned.
Both chains rely heavily on seasonal changes, and are counting on an increase in purchases as the spring season appears and the weather improves.